In Today’s Globalized World, Socio-Political Processes Are Developing Quite Rapidly and Dynamically
Everything is changing at a kaleidoscopic pace, and the international community is far from always being able to respond to this in a timely and adequate manner.
In the 21st century, the Russian-Ukrainian war has become one of the most important problems facing humanity, and this conflict needs to be resolved as quickly as possible, since the full-scale invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine has completely destroyed the entire current system of international security and law. It has become clear that the world was not prepared for such developments and for overcoming new challenges and threats. Now, anarchy and chaos reign, and a brutal, difficult, and bloody war has been raging between Russia and Ukraine for four years.
Amid global uncertainty and disorder, the Russians decided that it was time to restore Russia’s imperial status.
The first step in realizing this plan was to conquer Ukraine. After that, all of its resources were to be mobilized and used to invade Europe.
However, Ukraine withstood the blow, which nullified all of Putin’s further plans. A deadlock has been reached, and now no one knows how to get out of it with the least losses.
Putin’s key mistake was that he significantly overestimated his strength and underestimated Ukraine’s military and political potential. Besides, the Russian special services did him a disservice by providing the RF’s president with inaccurate information. Based on this information, he made the wrong management decision and committed a strategic error. It seems that at the most crucial moment, generals and intelligence officers wanted to please Putin and provided him with biased information, telling him what he wanted to hear.
Over time, it became clear that the vast majority of Ukrainians, both in the West and in the East, are not waiting for “liberators”, and that is why the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been defending themselves quite successfully for the fourth year in a row, defeating the enemy and holding back Russian advances.
Another important miscalculation by Putin was that in the 21st century, he decided to live by the rules of centuries long past. Today, we live in a different world, where everyone has become much freer, but at the same time more dependent on each other than in the past. Putin grossly ignored this fact and decided that he was omnipotent and could turn back time and the wheel of history.
As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the interests of many influential political players in the world have been affected, and now everyone is looking for the best way out of this situation.
The United States wants a quick end to the Russian-Ukrainian war, as this is primarily in the personal interests of the current White House administration. The motivation of Donald Trump and his inner circle is quite simple and understandable.
They are trying to prevent Russia from strengthening China, the current global competitor of the United States. Today, it is common knowledge that as a result of the failed military operation in Ukraine, the RF has fallen into complete vassal dependence on China, which naturally causes great concern in America. In addition, Trump and his associates have their own commercial interests in Russia, and the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war hinders their implementation.
However, the establishment of a peace process here is greatly hampered by Putin’s maniacal desire to restore Russia’s imperial status by force of arms. He is trying with incredible stubbornness to turn the world back to the past, despite the fact that everyone is already living in the 21st century, where different principles and rules apply than those that were in place 200 or even 100 years ago. We live in a world where no one is interested in or needs a new Russian Empire, except perhaps the aging Russian dictator, who has measured and drawn it in his sick imagination and that of his closest associates. But even if Putin manages to agree on something with Donald Trump, Trump is far from representing all of America. There are quite a few influential politicians in the USA who are categorically opposed to the revival of Russian imperialism and will therefore do their utmost to prevent Russia from conquering Ukraine.
Europe is also not interested in the revival of the Russian Empire, as this contradicts its strategic interests and poses a real threat to peace in the region. That is why Europeans have helped and will continue to help Ukraine, as it has taken on the main burden of fighting Russian expansion on the European continent.
In the long term, China is not interested in Russia regaining its imperial status, as it does not want to have a strong competitor and neighbor.
In the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict, China supports Russia only to prevent it from losing this war and thus prevent the West from strengthening its position in the international arena. Besides, China is taking full advantage of Russia’s current difficult military, political, and economic situation to sell its goods to Russia at high prices and buy Russian raw materials at low prices.
For various reasons, other less influential political players in the world are not interested in the revival of Russian imperialism either. The coincidence of all these circumstances gives reason to believe that Russia will ultimately lose this war, since no one needs it except Putin himself and some Russians who have been poisoned by imperial propaganda.
Now a few words about the legal side of this issue. In the free world, all important international legal acts must be ratified by the highest legislative body. Without this, they are not valid, have no legal force, and no chance of practical implementation. In any democratic state governed by the rule of law, it is not individual officials who play a decisive role, but the relevant state institutions, which, on the one hand, help governments avoid mistakes in the process of making important management decisions and, on the other hand, protect society from the possible usurpation of power by one person or a group of people.
Now, let us consider the practical possibility of legally enforcing Putin’s claims to Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia during the war.
It is worth noting that in the current system of international legal relations, there are no arguments in favor of such a demand by the Russian dictator, nor can there be any. Moreover, any attempt to make a decision on this issue in favor of Russia would have serious consequences. The international community would set a dangerous precedent that would open Pandora’s box. In fact, this would mean that now everyone has the right to resolve territorial disputes by military means. It is not difficult to guess what such a decision would mean for the preservation of peace, international law and order, and socio-political stability throughout the world.
Therefore, according to international law, all of Putin’s claims regarding the Ukrainian territories occupied by his army are groundless and illegal, and therefore cannot be satisfied in any way.
How can we get out of the current situation and restore peace and international law and order?
First of all, we need to stop the fighting and bring diplomats and lawyers to the negotiating table. In any case, in order to start a dialogue, there must be a truce. This is the main condition that must precede the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Next, the United Nations needs to be reformed. In the future, in order to ensure peace, law and order, and stability in the world, the UN must be given real powers and levers of influence. This Organization must be given the authority to enforce institutions that will have real power and means to compel violators of the law to comply with universally recognized legal principles and international legal norms. This approach will make it possible to respond in a timely and adequate manner to warning signs and to take preventive measures to avert or end international armed conflicts. The United Nations can become influential and effective when it has a real opportunity to respond quickly to situations, catch and bring to justice international criminals, from drug dealers to all sorts of “imperialists”, “Zionists”, “jihadists”, “Rashists” and other extremists and terrorists.
Obviously, such an approach to reforming the UN will have many opponents, primarily among those who do not recognize and do not want to recognize any international legal principles and norms. If the UN is not given effective powers and means to protect international legal norms, then there must be a country that can act as a global policeman and restrain and punish global criminals. Recently, after the collapse of the USSR and before the rise of China, this role was assigned to the USA, but after the publication of America’s new national security concept, it became clear that the era of the USA as the global world policeman was over and remained in the past. Today, humanity is on the verge of great changes and transformations. Therefore, in a period of anarchy and chaos, the proposal to create a strong and effective organization based on the UN to preserve universal peace and establish a just international legal order is relevant, entirely realistic, and practical.
Oleh Bereziuk,
Institute for Global Polititics
(Image generated by neural network)
